The Last Ditch by Tom Paine

Among the many subjects that mark me out as “mad” or “bad” to my West London neighbours is the war in Ukraine. I was a partner in an international law firm with offices in both countries. I lived and worked in Russia for seven years and visited Ukraine a fair bit.

I have both Russian and Ukrainian friends. I wish both nations (and neither government) well.

Both have the full range of humans from good to evil and in the same proportion as anywhere else I’ve lived. Both nations have their virtues. I’d go so far as to say, for example, that Russians and Ukrainians make more reliable friends than British people. That may be because, in corrupt kleptocracies where the law, government and other institutions can never be trusted, a good friend is a key asset.

Russia is completely in the wrong in this war. It invaded Ukraine without any moral justification. I would love Ukraine to win – and to win so well that peace can be guaranteed for a generation. That’s first prize in geopolitics. Peace is never permanent – however smug and comfortable a nation may feel. A nation like Britain, which has more young people willing to join foreign terrorist groups than its own armed forces, is in serious danger of finding that out soon.

So why do my woke West London friends think I’m mad, bad or both on this subject? Because I take a practical approach. While it would be nice if Ukraine could win, I have always felt it was highly unlikely. Why?

Firstly, it’s hard for us in the self-loathing West to imagine just how loyal Russia’s mothers are. They will accept their sons back from war in body bags, not cheerfully but with proud resignation.

Secondly, Russia began this war debt-free. It does not need the Iron Bank of Braavos to fund its “special operation”.

Thirdly, the traditional modus operandi of the Russian army is this. One rifle. Twenty men. Shoot the man in front with the rifle and another picks it up and keeps coming. You can kill nineteen soldiers but the gun still ends up in your face.

It’s hard for Western nations in trillions of debt to fund corrosive welfare systems to imagine that kind of social and economic power and, still less, that kind of resolve.

Our national debt is so high that there’s a “moron premium” on the interest rates we pay. You’re always going to end a war in debt. If you start one in massive, crippling debt, you’re going to lose. Our national defences have been run down far worse than official statistics (which include the wages of thousands of useless bureaucrats and the unfunded costs of their pensions in the numbers) suggest. And our mothers have been taught that we’re a foul, racist country unworthy of defence.

If my assessment is correct then there’s nothing noble in my woke West London friends’ approach. Apart from putting Ukrainian flags on their social media profiles (how Russia trembles at that!) they essentially support Joe Biden’s policy of providing just enough munitions to Ukraine to extend the war. They don’t suggest sending in our own troops to fight and die. They – and the governments of the West – cheer from the sidelines. They’re ready to fight to the last Ukrainian and then weep sadly over the smoking ruins.

Ukraine has fought well. It is essentially in the position now that our country was after the sacrifices of “the Few” in the Battle of Britain. It has stood and fought alone. Its warriors have earned their place in song. But if the Allies didn’t show up at that point, would the outcome of World War II been the same? I think not. Without America and Russia, we’d have lost.

Ukraine’s allies are not coming. That’s a fact. Nothing is coming except more flags on Facebook profiles and cheap munitions to fire in the last ditch. War isn’t won by the good guys. It’s won by the strongest armies and most resolute leaders. Sadly, resolution can come as easily from Putin’s madness as it did from Churchill’s virtue.

It’s in this context that my woke West London friends accuse President Trump of being “pro-Putin” because he’s trying to negotiate a messy and disreputable peace to stop all the pointless dying. In the end, the position of the boundary between two corrupt kleptocracies doesn’t matter all that much. The lives of all those nice humans do matter. They matter a lot.

I have a friend – a former law partner of mine – in Kyiv. He is not a young man but has fought in his nation’s “Dad’s Army” and killed a few Russians in defence of his home. His view is that the only way to secure a lasting peace is for Ukraine thoroughly to defeat Russia. He believes the war is turning in Ukraine’s favour and that it can be done. He is a tremendous patriot. I respect and admire him. He is also vehemently anti-Russian and has always been so – since long before the present wicked war. I fear his prejudices are such that he may not be seeing things clearly.

This article from CNN supports his view to some extent. There’s certainly a better opportunity for POTUS to negotiate a (more or less) just peace right now than there was a few weeks ago. My friend wants to fight longer because he believes Russia’s situation will deteriorate further. He still hopes for a thorough, humiliating defeat. I would love him to be right. I still fear he may be wrong. I also worry that he’s underestimating how long Russia holds a grudge.

The best thing the West could do, not just for Ukraine but for all countries in precarious positions everywhere, is to rebuild its own strength. Enough of the corrosive welfare states. The fact that they’re pulling in people who never contributed to them from countries that actively hate us should be a clue that they’ve gone too far.

We can’t just rely on nuclear weapons any more. They’re too damned dangerous to use – except in the last vengeful resort. The most they’ll ever give us is a dying thought that the other bastard is dying too. So we mostly end up cowering as if they didn’t exist.

The Romans had it right. If you want peace, prepare for war. Britain should be able to defend itself. That means reducing the national debt (not just the deficit – the rate at which the debt increases) but the actual amount owed. That means raising children to love their country and be ready to defend it – not to loathe it. If we could achieve that, not only could we stand secure behind our borders, we could help future Ukraines more practically than with flags on our social media and empty words.